Iifektri ezinengxaki yombane wegridi olinganiselweyo zinokunceda ekuqhubeleni phambili ukwanda kwemveliso kwindawo leyoiinkqubo zelanga, kwaye amanyathelo akutshanje okuyalela ukuba kulungiswe i-PV kwizakhiwo ezikhoyo nawo anokuphakamisa imarike, njengoko umhlalutyi uFrank Haugwitz echaza.

Kukho amanyathelo ahlukeneyo athathwe ngabasemagunyeni baseTshayina ukuze kuncitshiswe ukukhutshwa komoya ongcolileyo, enye impembelelo ekhawulezileyo yale migaqo-nkqubo kukuba i-PV yelanga esasazwayo ifumene ukubaluleka okukhulu, kuba nje ivumela iifektri ukuba zisebenzise, ​​kwindawo yazo, umbane wazo owenziweyo, odla ngokuba nexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu kunamandla anikezelwa yigridi - ngakumbi ngexesha leemfuno eziphezulu. Okwangoku, ixesha eliqhelekileyo lokubuyisela imali kwinkqubo yophahla yezorhwebo neyemizi-mveliso (C&I) eTshayina limalunga neminyaka emi-5-6. Ngaphezu koko, ukusetyenziswa kwelanga lephahla kuya kunceda ukunciphisa impembelelo yekhabhoni yabavelisi kunye nokuxhomekeka kwabo kumandla amalahle.

Ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti, i-National Energy Administration (NEA) yaseTshayina yavuma inkqubo entsha yokulinga eyenzelwe ngokukodwa ukukhuthaza ukusasazwa kwe-PV yelanga esasazwayo. Ngoko ke, ekupheleni kuka-2023, izakhiwo ezikhoyo ziya kufuneka zifake i-inkqubo ye-PV eluphahleni.

Phantsi komyalelo, kuya kufuneka ubuncinane ipesenti yezakhiwo ukuze kufakwei-PV yelanga, kunye neemfuno ezinje: izakhiwo zikarhulumente (ezingaphantsi kwama-50%); izakhiwo zikarhulumente (40%); iipropati zorhwebo (30%); kunye nezakhiwo zasemaphandleni (20%), kuzo zonke izithili ezingama-676, kuya kufuneka zibe nesakhiwoinkqubo yophahla lwelangaUkuba sicinga ukuba i-200-250 MW kwisithili ngasinye, imfuno iyonke evela kule nkqubo yodwa inokuba phakathi kwe-130 kunye ne-170 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023.

Imbonakalo yexesha elifutshane

Kungakhathaliseki ukuba impembelelo yemigaqo-nkqubo yokulawula i-carbon ephindwe kabini kunye ne-dual control injani na, kwiiveki ezisibhozo ezidlulileyo amaxabiso e-polysilicon ebenyuka - ukuya kufikelela kwi-RMB270/kg ($41.95).

Kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ukusuka kwimeko enzima ukuya kwimeko yokunqongophala kobonelelo ngoku, ukuncipha kobonelelo lwe-polysilicon kukhokelele ekubeni iinkampani ezikhoyo nezintsha zivakalise injongo yazo yokwakha amandla amatsha okuvelisa i-polysilicon okanye ukongeza kwizibonelelo ezikhoyo. Ngokweengqikelelo zamva nje, ukuba zonke iiprojekthi ezili-18 ze-poly ezicwangcisiweyo ngoku ziyaphunyezwa, i-polysilicon ezigidi ezi-3 zeetoni iyonke yonyaka inokongezwa ngo-2025-2026.

Nangona kunjalo, kwixesha elifutshane, amaxabiso e-polysilicon kulindeleke ukuba ahlale ephezulu, ngenxa yokunikezelwa okuncinci kombane okuza kwi-intanethi kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo, nangenxa yotshintsho olukhulu lwemfuno ukusuka ngo-2021 ukuya kunyaka ozayo. Kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, amaphondo amaninzi avumile imibhobho yeprojekthi yelanga enamadijithi amabini e-gigawatt, uninzi olukhulu lucwangciselwe ukuqhagamshelwa kwigridi ngoDisemba kunyaka ozayo.

Kule veki, ngexesha lenkomfa esemthethweni yabezindaba, abameli be-NEA yaseTshayina babhengeze ukuba, phakathi kukaJanuwari noSeptemba, kufakwe amandla amatsha okuvelisa i-PV yelanga angama-22 GW, nto leyo emele ukunyuka kwe-16%, unyaka nonyaka. Xa kujongwa izinto zamva nje, i-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory iqikelela ukuba ngo-2021 imakethi inokukhula phakathi kwe-4% ne-13%, unyaka nonyaka - 50-55 GW - ngaloo ndlela iwela uphawu lwe-300 GW.

UFrank Haugwitz ngumlawuli we-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory.