Iifektri ezinengxaki yombane wegridi elinganiselweyo zinokunceda ukuqhuba i-boom kwindawoiinkqubo zelanga, kunye neentshukumo zamva nje zokugunyazisa ukulungiswa kwakhona kwe-PV kwizakhiwo ezikhoyo zinokunyusa imarike, njengoko umhlalutyi uFrank Haugwitz echaza.

Kubekho uluhlu lwamanyathelo athatyathwe ngabasemagunyeni baseTshayina ukufezekisa ukuncitshiswa kokukhutshwa, impembelelo enye ekhawulezileyo yemigaqo-nkqubo enjalo kukuba i-PV esasazwayo yelanga izuze ukubaluleka okubalulekileyo, ngenxa yokuba yenza ukuba iifektri zidle, kwisiza, amandla azo aveliswa ekuhlaleni, ehlala ifikeleleka ngakumbi kunamandla abonelelwa ngegridi - ngakumbi ngeeyure zemfuno ephezulu.Okwangoku, ixesha eliqhelekileyo lokuhlawulwa kwenkqubo ye-rooftop yezorhwebo kunye nezoshishino (i-C & I) e-China malunga ne-5-6 iminyaka.Ngaphezu koko, ukuthunyelwa kwe-solar ephahleni kuya kunceda ukunciphisa i-carbon footprints yabakhiqizi kunye nokuxhomekeka kwabo kumandla wamalahle.

Ekupheleni kuka-Agasti uLawulo lweSizwe lwaMandla e-China (NEA) lwamkele inkqubo entsha yokulingwa eyenzelwe ngokukodwa ukukhuthaza ukuthunyelwa kwe-PV yelanga esasazwayo.Ngako oko, ekupheleni kuka-2023, izakhiwo ezikhoyo ziya kufuneka zifake i-ainkqubo yePV yophahla.

Phantsi kogunyaziso, ubuncinci bepesenti yezakhiwo ziya kufuneka zifakelweiPV yelanga, ngeemfuno ngolu hlobo lulandelayo: izakhiwo zikarhulumente (ezingekho ngaphantsi kwama-50%);iziseko zoluntu (40%);iipropati zorhwebo (30%);kunye nezakhiwo zasemaphandleni (20%), kuzo zonke iingingqi ezingama-676, kuya kufuneka ukuba zibeneinkqubo yophahla lwelanga.Kuqikelelwa ukuba i-200-250 MW kwidolophu nganye, imfuno epheleleyo evela kule nkqubo iyodwa ingaba phakathi kwe-130 kunye ne-170 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023.

Imbonakalo yexesha elikufutshane

Kungakhathaliseki ukuba yintoni impembelelo yekhabhoni ephindwe kabini kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yokulawula kabini, kwiiveki ezisibhozo ezidlulileyo ixabiso le-polysilicon liye lanyuka - ukufikelela kwi-RMB270 / kg (i-$ 41.95).

Kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ukuguquka ukusuka kwi-tight ukuya kwimeko ye-short-of-supply, i-polysilicon supply crunch ibangele ukuba iinkampani ezikhoyo kunye nezitsha zivakalise injongo yazo yokwakha amandla okuvelisa i-polysilicon entsha okanye ukongeza kwiindawo ezikhoyo.Ngokoqikelelo lwamva nje, ukuba zonke iiprojekthi ezili-18 ezicwangcisiweyo ngoku ziphunyeziweyo, iyonke yeetoni ezizigidi ezi-3 zemveliso yepolysilicon yonyaka inokongezwa ngo-2025-2026.

Nangona kunjalo, kwixesha elikufuphi, amaxabiso e-polysilicon kulindeleke ukuba ahlale ephezulu, ngenxa yonikezelo olongezelelweyo olulinganiselweyo oluza kwi-intanethi kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo, kwaye ngenxa yokutshintsha okukhulu kwemfuno ukusuka ku-2021 ukuya kunyaka ozayo.Kwezi veki zimbalwa zidlulileyo, inyambalala yamaphondo iphumeze imibhobho yeprojekthi yelanga enedigit-digit-gigawatt scale, uninzi lwayo luhlelelwe ukuba luqhagamshelwe kuthungelwano lombane ngeyoMnga kulo nyaka uzayo.

Kule veki, ngexesha lenkomfa yabezindaba esemthethweni, abameli be-NEA yaseChina babhengeze ukuba, phakathi kukaJanuwari noSeptemba, i-22 GW ye-PV entsha yokuvelisa amandla elanga ifakwe, emele ukwanda kwe-16%, ngonyaka.Ukuthathela ingqalelo uphuhliso lwamva nje, i-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory iqikelela ukuba kwi-2021 imarike ingakhula phakathi kwe-4% kunye ne-13%, unyaka ngonyaka - 50-55 GW - ngaloo ndlela iwela uphawu lwe-300 GW.

UFrank Haugwitz ungumlawuli we-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory.